BETTING BASEBALL BASICS
Before we get started with baseball action, let's get a few BASEBALL RULES out of the way, for anyone new to my service this season. Remember these, because they won't change, and I won't waver with anything.
1. Let it serve as a reminder to get to the site early during the baseball season. If not, there is a possibility you will miss out on some games. Look at the schedule the night before, see if there are early games, and get in here early the next day in case I'm releasing an early play. There are no make-up days, so do not miss any plays.
2. We're in the first month of the season, so if you're looking for an abundance of Major Wagers - don't. It won't happen often. There are six months of baseball, and unless I see something completely out of whack, there won't be many monster plays this early in the campaign. Package players, do not get discouraged. It's called money management. And just because I'm up a lot with my other sports, that doesn't mean we jump in head first with MLB selections. We are starting an entirely new project, as the season begins.
3. Pitchers DO NOT always need to be listed. It's one of the more overstated comments I read annually. But the fact is, it's not always necessary. If I do not stipulate anything about pitchers, no need to write in to Customer Service. No need to double check. Pitcher scratched? Don't write in, either. Just follow the instructions. If a pitcher is listed and gets scratched, it's a NO PLAY. If pitcher(s) aren't listed and someone gets scratched - it's a play. I handicap pitchers, I handicap situations, I handicap travel patterns and I look for streaks - both losing and winning. Sometimes I ride win streaks, other times I specifically play against winning teams. I won't tell you why, that's divulging my own research tactics. Again, just follow the daily instructions for the next 6 months, and you will make money. Also, there may be times I am not insisting you list pitchers, but will include pitchers in the analysis. That's normal, because they're the pitchers of record at the time and they simply add to my thoughts, but the play may not be based on them.
4. I'm not big on Run Line releases. Go back to 2022, when I didn't release one all season in 2022. I may or may not release one this season. They've turned into a real sucker bet at times, which is why sharp groups won't play them. We've got pitchers on the clock and umps playing too much of a factor into the results, so don't expect much of them from me. I'd rather back a cheap favorite or $2 dog then lay a big number with an overpriced pitcher.
That should cover the basics, for now...
PRO FOOTBALL CHAMPIONSHIP RUN SINCE 2006
Documented 15-4-1 Roll with my BIG GAME releases
SIDES 6-1 ... TOTALS 8-3-1 ... TEASER 1-0
Blank Checks (1-0) ... 3000♦ (1-0) ... 2000♦ (0-3)
1000♦ (4-0) ... 600♦ (5-1) ... 500♦ (2-0-1) ... 400♦ (1-0) ... 300♦ (1-0)
- 2006 ... WIN: Blank Check Steelers-Seahawks Under 47
- 2007 ... WIN: 3000♦ Bears-Colts Under 47
- 2008 ... WIN: 1000♦ Giants +12' vs. Patriots
- 2009 ... WIN: 1000♦ Cardinals +6' vs. Steelers
- 2010 ... WIN: 600♦ Saints-Colts Under 56'
- 2011 ... LOSS: 2000♦ Packers-Steelers Under 45
- 2012 ... WIN: 1000♦ Giants-Patriots Under 53'
- 2013 ... WIN: 400♦ Ravens-49ers Over 48
- 2014 ... LOSS: 2000♦ Broncos-Seahawks Under 47'
- 2015 ... WIN: 500♦ Teaser Seahawks and Under vs. Patriots
- 2016 ... WIN: 500♦ Broncos-Panthers Under 44
- 2017 ... WIN: 1000♦ Patriots -3 vs. Falcons
- 2018 ... LOSS: 2000♦ Patriots -4' vs. Eagles
- 2019 ... WIN: 600♦ Patriots-Rams Under 55'
- 2020 ... WIN: 600♦ Chiefs Moneyline -125 vs. 49ers
- 2021 ... WIN: 600♦ Buccaneers +3 vs. Chiefs
- 2022 ... WIN: 600♦ Bengals-Rams Under 48'
- 2023 ... LOSS: 600♦ Eagles-Chiefs Under 51
- 2024 ... PUSH: 500♦ 49ers-Chiefs Over 47
- 2025 ... WIN: 300♦ Eagles +1' over Chiefs
Chris Jordan's Rating System
Everyone should be on the same page for each new campaign and how to approach each season.
You first must understand the Kelly Criterion, sometimes referred to as the Kelly formula; it's a blueprint I like to use to maximize the long-term growth rate of our bankroll, using repeated gambles of the variety of ratings I give out.
That criterion says an aggressive gambler should wager a set percentage of his bankroll, pertaining to the advantage (or rating system in this case) he feels he has over the game itself.
For those of you who play blackjack when visiting casinos, you may do the same thing in determining there is a one percent advantage over the dealer, and wager 1 percent of the total bankroll.
The key thing to remember is determining the percentage your using, and the maximum you'd be willing to risk on the top rating you will find here, which is the 1,000♦ Power Play.
On a daily basis you will find my plays ranging from from 100♦ and 1,000♦, but well within percentages you can effectively spread your wagers. When you do see the rating system on plays upgraded to a higher level, I will always talk about managing the bankroll accordingly.
Remember, a 1,000♦ play does not indicate a specific amount for everyone in general, it means if you're absolute biggest play you're willing to make is a nickel - that is your gauge with this rating system.
You need only divide accordingly from your absolute maximum amount into whatever the rating is, based on 1,000♦ being the highest rating.
Overall, you will find that I like to keep it consistent day-to-day so you know exactly when I'm stepping out on a big play.
Please follow these ratings accordingly.
IMPORTANT NOTE:
The occasional 2,000♦, 3,000♦ or BLANK CHECK releases are games I feel are extreme value for the price, or in Kelly Criterion theory - is more of an advantage over the book.
I have always personally played a Blank Check game FIVE TIMES THE SIZE of my regular maximum bet. So, for example, on day I am releasing a Blank Check Winner, one 1,000♦ play and three 200♦ picks, a player with a maximum wager of $500 would wager the following:
Blank Check play - $2,500
1,000♦ Plays - $500
200♦ Plays - $100 each
With the vig, you would have a total of $3,630 in action.
Hope this helps in regards to money management!
Complimentary Baseball Winner
New York at BALTIMORE (9'o, -120)
~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
My complimentary winner for tonight is the New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles to sail over the posted number.
I check the weather during the MLB season, and tonight when these two offensive teams get together, we have a situation where the forecast is calling for "clear skies, comfortable temperatures and winds blowing out to left field will improve home run chances slightly in that direction."
That's music to my ears, because the Yankees have already hit 45 home runs this season, second most in the league. Tonight they get a crack at Orioles starter Tomoyuki Sugano, who's allowed six home runs in four starts this month.
And while Baltimore might be 10-17 to start the season, it's still a threat at home, where it ranks tied for fourth with 20 home runs. The O's face Yankees righty Will Warren, who has a 5.91 ERA after three road starts this season.
Look for a high-scoring game tonight.
1♦ OVER
Based on 1♦ to 5♦