Daily Play Recap
10/3 - 50 Dime - San Diego Padres - Win
10/2 - 50 Dime - San Diego Padres (RL +130) - Win
10/1 - 75 Dime - Detroit Lions - Win
9/29 - 100 Dime - Baltimore Ravens - Win
9/28 - 100 Dime - Notre Dame - Win
9/27 - 50 Dime - Virginia Tech/Miami/Fla Over- Win
9/26 - 50 Dime - Army - Win
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- Ravens (-2') 35-10 over Baltimore (9/29) -
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What a primetime matchup we have tonight as a pair of AFC Big Dogs go at it at M&T Bank Stadium. The unbeaten Buffalo Bills at 3-0 take on the 1-2 Baltimore Ravens who are coming off their first win of the season last Sunday and will be in front of the home crowd on a planned "Darkness Falls" night in Charm City.
What the hell does "Darkness Falls" mean? It's a good, old-fashioned blackout in the stands tonight as the home crowd will do its best to help the home team with their support to level their season mark to 2-2.
It's hard to find fault in anything the Bills have done to date, as they mounted a nice comeback on the opening week of the season at home in a win over Arizona, followed by a Thursday night romp of the Dolphins in Miami, and then on Monday night they scored pretty much every time Josh Allen had the football in an absolute humiliation of the Jacksonville Jaguars. The team averages 37.3 points per game while giving up only 16 points per game.
Even with that domination, the oddsmakers have installed them as the road underdog tonight against this Ravens team that hasn't yet strung together a full 4 quarters of football.
Baltimore was a football cleat away from a possible opening night upset win in Kansas City, coughed up a 10-point, 4th quarter lead at home to Las Vegas in Week 2, and last Sunday looked every bit the bully in dominating the Cowboys in Big D before nearly squandering a 25-6 lead in the 4th quarter in their 28-25 win.
After the game, Lamar Jackson spoke with the coaches about continuing to keep their foot on the gas instead of letting up, and I suspect you will see a change in philosophy tonight in front of the home crowd.
My gut feeling is the Bills have been a bit of an overachiever through 3 games, while the Ravens have been a bit of an underachiever up until this point.
Baltimore is still in a bit of a desperate mode, and a loss here would drop them to 1-3 on the season. I see the Ravens warming up to their "Darkness Falls" game and finding a way to win and cover over the Bills..
3rd-Ever College 100 Dime Max Wager Release
- Notre Dame (-6') 31-24 over Louisville (9/28) -
- Check out my Analysis -
Louisville is unbeaten at 3-0 and heads to South Bend as the 15th-ranked team in the land.
Notre Dame is 3-1 on the year and ranked 16th in the land, and they will be playing this game with a little payback in mind.
Last October the Irish got clipped in the Bluegrass State, 33-20 by the Cardinals, and you can assume Marcus Freeman and his team have not forgotten that loss as they take to the field under Touchdown Jesus today.
After suffering an embarrassing loss to Northern Illinois on the 7th, 16-14, the Irish have circled their wagons with back-to-back wins, 66-7 at Purdue, and 28-3 at home last week against Miami-Ohio.
Suppose Notre Dame can run the table the rest of the way, and run it convincingly. In that case, chances are the Irish can make the expanded 12-team playoff, and it all starts today against this Cardinals team that sure looked beatable last week at home against Georgia Tech.
Jeff Brohm's team was playing off a bye week, and although they covered the -9 1/2 points in a 31-19 win, the Cards scored the clinching touchdown while up 24-19 on a blocked field goal they returned for 60 yards and a touchdown to cinch the win.
Keep in mind Louisville was outgained 410 to 326 in total yards, and were bottled up for just 57 rushing yards, as the defense also scored on a fumble return. Hardly impressive if you ask me, and the Redbirds' previous pair of wins came against "powerhouses" Austin Peay and Jacksonville State.
Riley Leonard appears settled under center for the Irish. While Leonard was not the quarterback for Our Lady last year in the Irish's loss at Louisville, this is still a revenge game for Notre Dame and I see the Irish getting their revenge today. Notre Dame has covered 12 of their last 14 games played against the ACC, and they will cover today. Let's call this one Notre Dame 24 and Louisville 14.
Lay it with the Irish.
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Big Mike's Tompkin's Rating System
My focus, like any smart strategist, is on long-term success and building consistent profit over time.
As a seasoned analyst and former player, I like to keep things straightforward. That's why I developed the Yardage Rating System. It’s simple, intuitive, and keeps plays in perspective, just like measuring progress on the field.
At the top of my scale is the 100-yard play. This is my strongest recommendation, the kind of insight that doesn’t come along every day, but can make a significant impact when it does.
Now I realize listing a play in terms of "yards" is somewhat confusing, although I think conceptually it so much simpler that any "star" system that others use. So, for sake of clarity, I will bow down to pressure and substitute the word "dimes" for "yards" as so many other handicappers do at this site.
Back to my system....
When I have smaller releases, like 50- or 75-yard plays, they shouldn’t be overlooked. Their value is all about context, how I’m reading the game at that moment in relation to the current state of our bankroll.
Remember, it’s always about perspective. Each play has its place. Understanding that is key to making the most of my analysis.
Who is "Big Mike" Tompkins?
I've been in and around sports my entire life. Played three years of college football at the FCS level as a defensive lineman. At 6-7, 270 you know why they called me "Big Mike." Played basketball, too. After graduation, I was invited to the Buffalo Bills training camp, but an injury ended those dreams. I did, however, spend a few years playing Arena Football before I called it a career.
Bottom Line: I PLAYED the game. I KNOW the game.
With years of experience on the field and behind the scenes, I bring you an unmatched blend of knowledge and expert analysis. Understanding game strategies provides me insight and an edge when handicapping. I offer daily analysis that goes beyond the numbers.